“The Tragic iPad”
The screenshot below contains emails, with subject lines and dates, from Apple.
Starting at the bottom we have the iPad introduction, then we have launch dates for iPad Wi-Fi, iPad Wi-Fi + 3G, iPhone 4 and at the top iTunes Ping.
Thought about tweeting the text below.
When is the BIGGER iPad coming out? Is it 12”, 13”, 14” or 15”? And you were thinking they were expanding smaller? #iKnowNothing 😉
There has been a lot of chatter that an Apple event in October will introduce a new smaller iPad device. Well, in the not to distant future Apple might discover a market for an iPad even bigger than the current 9.7″ model. Time will tell if this is reality or just a dream.
Current laptops from Apple come with screen sizes of 11″, 13″, and 15″. The power of three?
Apple Event March 7, 2012
A few thoughts. I’ve been reading some blog posts and listening to some podcasts and below are a few thoughts. Some are guesses others have that I agree with. Also, this is not all-inclusive. Just want to get a few things written down before the event.
This will be an iPad event
There will be a double resolution screen. It’s my understanding that the pixels per inch would not make it a true retina display, but every one seems to be calling it that. *1
As for the name, iPad HD seems more likely than iPad 3. *2
The current iPad 2 will still be manufactured. It will probably only be available in 16 GB sizes. *3
The iPad HD will also come in storage capacity double each of the three variants currently available. There will be three sizes. The new sizes will be 32, 64, and 128GB. Some iTunes U lectures are nearly 1 GB each, hence the need for more storage. *4
There will be new software for acquiring, scheduling and watching video programming on a tv. This may be part a new Apple TV, the set-top box, not an actual Apple TV. *5
It’s my belief that the iPad will not have a 4G option. It’s a bit fuzzy if there will be mobile operator integration. Meaning, there will not be an AT&T model and a Verizon/Sprint model for 3G. *6
The Big Guess
The surprise as I believe it will play out is that there will be a new larger iPod Touch. The screen will be about 7″ as measures diagonally. This has been a thought of mine for the past five of six months. Reading Kindle books on an iPad would be better on a slightly smaller device. A larger Touch might fit the bill for content consumption. This will keep the iPad brand strong (and separate), and clear in the minds of consumers and users. The iPad is the tablet computer and the Touch is more of a content consumption device. *7
*1 This seems to be the consensus view.
*2 There are some people who suggest this will be the name.
*3 Believe I heard about this on the Talk Show podcast. Might be episode 81. They also spoke of lower prices on the iPad 2.
*4 Apple has increased device storage capacity options in the past. There is a real need for more space with use cases for iPad. iTunes U files, iBook textbooks, Movies etc.
*5 This may mean a new version of iTunes. Not sure.
*6 As the iPad becomes more mainstream, users are less likely to want of need another data plan. They already have broadband at home with a wireless router (Wi-Fi) and a data plan on their phone. A third data plan is an extra and unnecessary expense. There will still be a market for the 3G version, but it will be come a smaller fraction of overall sales. my guess, between 10-15% of sales when yearly output is greater than 50 million units and less than 100 million units.
*7 Have not heard or seen many people thinking this. There was some conversation about a 7″ iPad coming out later this year.
If Apple is increasing manufacturing capacity at or near 100% per year, when does capacity begin to out-pace market demand for the device output of that capacity?
This question came to mind while reading a post on the Asymco blog, How did I get the iPhone number so wrong (part II).
Surely there is some maximum number of units that this capacity can fill. How do you find the point where capacity growth needs to slow so that the plant remains highly efficient? IE, capacity does not out pace market demand by a significant margin.
Consider the iPhone, even if every person on Earth had one, max market capacity would be equal to all of human life on Earth. Perhaps it would be worth while to find markets of people to exclude to find a max market demand for the product. From there, one might need to factor out people who are unable to afford the iPhone under current prices and with current purchasing plans. Certainly these market segments could be served by finding or creating a pricing and payment system that allows more people to afford and acquire an iPhone. This payment and affordability innovation may not occur, or Apple may choose not to play there because it hurts average earnings per unit to the point where total profits increase at a slower rate or actually decrease. There is a cost to serving all market segments.
NOTES & MORE (+ questions)
Upgrade cycle: Is it every 2 years? Is a new device coming every 15-18 months now?
Do people wait when there are rumors of a new device?
Market demand may fluctuate on a quarterly basis. An iPad makes a nice Christmas gift and perhaps schools will buy a large volume in July and August to gear up for a new school year. For a device like the iPad there is probably a significant drop off in demand after the holiday season.
Smart phones are becoming the new standard for mobile phones. Not everyone will use this ‘computer in your had’ to its fullest, some may not use it for much more than calls. There will most likely be a large segment that will use apps to do more things and solve new problems by having a smartphone.
Was just reading a post on Tech Crunch about the new Business Week iPad app. One of the complaints was that the content of the app is updated once per week, just like a real magazine.
Post all the writings of their talent in the app as it is completed. Then, based on the user data and feedback from the users of the iPad app, adjust what stories are featured in the magazine. This could be done with the top five articles that readers have rated highest. This could be highlighted in a page that explains what the stories are and where readers can find them in the magazine. Magazine readers may find this curation by the crowd to be of considerable value.
The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times have a similar feature in what published articles were most emailed, read or shared. Example links are below.